Whopper of the Week: RFK Jr. Says Obesity Rates Dropped Under Trump, Omits the Role of GLP-1 Drugs

Whopper of the Week: 

RFK JR. SAYS OBESITY RATES DROPPED UNDER TRUMP, OMITS ROLE OF GLP-1 DRUGS

SUMMARY

Secretary of Health Kennedy is on a Take Back Your Health Tour to promote his agenda and his shaky theory that, if Americans ate “real foods”, from “regenerative” farms they would not be obese or have chronic health conditions, so they would save tax payers money by consuming less health care. At an event hosted by the America First Policy Institute in June, Secretary Kennedy announced that "Since President Trump came into office, obesity rates in this country have dropped by 2.5%. That's the first drop in 50 years." The audience broke into applause. He continued, blaming ultra-processed foods and the government, “Our diet is now killing us. And, you know, if you’re obese or overweight, it’s not your fault. It’s because the government has been lying to you for 50 years. And now you have a government that is telling you the truth. And those [2026] dietary guidelines are already having an impact.”

There is a lot to unpack in Kennedy’s logic. The links between agriculture, food, obesity, chronic disease and health care costs are not as straightforward as the tale Kennedy spins. But it’s a Whopper to imply that recent decreases in obesity started under or because of Trump. Obesity rates in America have dropped modestly (see Figure below) since new drugs (Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 agonists or GLP-1 drugs) were approved for weight loss in 2021, well before Trump appointed Kennedy Secretary of Health and issued new dietary guidelines in 2026.

WHY IS THIS A WHOPPER?

The first year that adult obesity rates declined in the United States was 2023 according to a study in JAMA Health Forum, using the electronic health records and insurance claims of 16.7 million Americans over a decade. The average body mass index (BMI) increased every year from 2013 to 2021, plateaued in 2022, then decreased in 2023. In 2022, 46% of Americans classified as obese, with a BMI greater than 30, while 45.6% did in 2023. John Brownstein, a study co-author and professor at Harvard Medical School, told ABC News "What we're seeing for the first time is that curve is bending and shows a sign of hope for something that was really a threat to American public health for so many years." 

A smaller survey by Gallup in 2025 confirmed that patient reported diagnoses of obesity have declined since a 2022 peak. The Gallup survey also began asking about GLP-1 drug use in 2024, when 5.8% of respondents took the drugs for weight loss. By 2025, the percentage of users had doubled to 12.4%. The Gallup data finds that “the biggest reduction in obesity is found among those aged 40 to 49 and those aged 50 to 64, which are also the age groups with the greatest current rates of usage of GLP-1 injectables for weight loss purposes.” The growing popularity of GLP-1s seems to be associated with healthier BMI scores.

GLP-1 agonists were first approved to treat type 2 diabetes two decades ago. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) only approved Wegovy (semiglutide) as a chronic weight management drug for the obese and overweight in 2021, followed by Mounjaro and Zepbound (both tirzepatides) in 2022 and 2023. The approval of Wegovy is the event that catapulted GLP-1 drugs from diabetes medications into mainstream obesity therapies.

The branded GLP-1 drugs are expensive, with list prices over $1000 per month. Nevertheless, demand for GLP-1 drugs grew so quickly that there were shortages. The FDA temporarily allowed compounders to make some versions of the drugs which telehealth providers offered patients at much lower prices ($150-$400 per month). The shortages have since been resolved, but patients are still clamoring for cheaper access and more insurance coverage, which is expected to continue to drive demand. According to data from Epic Research (see Figure below), four times more GLP-1 prescriptions were issued in 2026 than in 2021. A poll by KFF found that “nearly one in five adults (18%) say at some point they have taken a GLP-1 drug.”

WHY DOES IT MATTER?

In sum, GLP-1 drugs to treat overweight and obesity have only been available in the United States for five years. Their growing use and popularity, which predates the current administration, is the most likely explanation for the recent decrease in prevalence of obesity and overweight in the U.S. population.

Kennedy is right that obesity rates dropped slightly in America, but he is wrong about when and why. The change started well before Kennedy published his updated dietary guidelines. While we don’t yet have data clearly showing the durability of the trend or its component causes, blockbuster new pharmaceuticals that are used by over 10% of the U.S. population for diabetes and weight management are likely an important factor behind the declines in obesity.

Kennedy regularly peddles nonsense about diet and the federal dietary guidelines, and now he’s taking credit for something he almost certainly had nothing to do with.

 

Contributions from:  Benedicte Callan, Ph.D., Aurora Hortskamp, M.D., Bruce Mirken